‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a official of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.