Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
