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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.